The Toronto Maple Leafs' season has been a rollercoaster, leaving fans with more questions than answers. Is it time to embrace the tank and focus on the future?
After a promising 13-game stretch in late December and early January, the Leafs' season took an unexpected turn. Their record in the remaining 48 games is just 18-23-7, equivalent to a 73-point pace over a full season. This puts them in a challenging position, with a 3% chance of making the playoffs and an 11% chance of securing a top-five draft pick. The remaining 86% of the possibilities mean giving a good pick (between sixth and 16th overall) to their division rival, the Boston Bruins.
With 21 games left, the focus shifts to trading and acquiring players by the deadline. Chris Johnston predicts three-and-a-half Leafs players will be traded, which might not be enough for a mass exodus. The team has four pending UFAs to deal as rentals, and the lottery odds are crucial, with a 7.3% chance of winning the draft lottery and getting a top-three pick.
The Leafs are currently in 23rd place, nine points ahead of the Flames and Blackhawks in the bottom five. However, the sell-offs in Calgary and Chicago could make it difficult to close this gap. The team is also tied with the Kings, and Nashville is only two points behind. The Devils, who the Leafs face on Wednesday, are not expected to be big sellers.
A drop from 10th last to sixth last would more than double the lottery odds, but it's still a long shot. The Islanders had a 3.5% chance of getting the first overall pick last offseason and ended up with a superstar. A one-in-seven shot of this disastrous season turning into a player like that for the Leafs would be something.
The Leafs' record could have been worse, and their recent performance has been better than most games this season. However, they have been one of the very worst teams in the NHL for the majority of the campaign. To improve, they need to trade some UFAs and dead wood, play young players more, and shut down veterans nursing injuries.
There could be a silver lining if they can add some draft picks and prospects in trades, get better looks at Easton Cowan and some of the Marlies in meaningful minutes, and also improve their lottery odds. The Bruins did this last year, winning just three of their final 16 games and ultimately getting a great young player with the seventh pick after the lottery.
Embracing the tank and focusing on the future might be the best path forward for the Leafs. It's a challenging road, but with better lottery odds and potentially giving Boston a slightly higher selection, it could be worth it.
